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In New York State, Governor Eliot Spitzer was well on the way to enabling legislation that would offer drivers licenses to illegal aliens—until a wall of opposition ground that initiative to a halt. I have a $1.00 bet with a political pundit at my gym that the issue of undocumented aliens is about to join the list of subjects that qualify as a “third rail” and that politicians will hide in caves to avoid discussing it candidly. Historical change: Americans are feeling insecure about their futures and less tolerant to anything that may be seen as a threat to their lifestyles.
Joel Osteen is the senior pastor of America’s largest church, Lakewood, in Houston and a TV personality that I enjoy. He is a very charming poster child for the growth of mega-churches in America, which seem to be sprouting in all sections of the country. The Faith Church up in New Milford Connecticut is another example, being led by Pastor Frank Santora. Some of these churches operate schools, lend money to businesses and operate community enterprises. I see churches and various religious organizations partially filling the vacuum being created by self-serving and inept politicians. Americans are feeling an acute leadership famine and will look to embrace charismatic religious figures.
The sub-prime mortgage mess doesn’t really have a poster child, though Angelo Muzillo of Country Wide Financial comes pretty close. Throughout the present difficulties and melt down the most distinctive thing Mr. Muzillo has shown is something that many people covet—a perpetual suntan. Over the next few months about 2 million adjustable loans will reset to a higher rate throwing a major grenade into household budgets across the country, especially in the high priced states like California. My careful listening tells me that the underlying financial instruments created by mortgage companies, banks and others that have been embraced by Wall Street as easy money are the real problem. And by keeping interest rates low in an effort to stave off a variety of credit “flu,” the folks at the Federal Reserve are setting us up for something that may be more like a plague. The historic shift I see is that the middle-class will shrink, with some being promoted to the ranks of the rich and others sliding toward being the working poor.
Yes, history is best seen with 20/20 hindsight and learning from it and applying the lessons as it unfolds is a dicey proposition. But what most of us forget is that we can study hundreds of year’s worth of events and let that DNA help us avoid the quicksand and booby traps that are always waiting for the unwary. Last week I watched a beautiful documentary titled “Dinosaur Death Trap” on the National Geographic Channel. Where is the documentary on how the current activity of debasing the currency always leads to hyperinflation and government destabilization? On any given day we can find 50 screaming headlines about the threat from Al Qaeda or suspected terrorist activities, but where is the front page story letting us know the history lesson that democracies have usually fallen by spending themselves to death and not from invading hordes or bombs?
Good business needs stability and if we want to protect our country, families, businesses and future opportunities we have to listen very carefully to the little things going on around us. Like the twigs, rocks and plants on a wilderness trail, they can tell us what we must do to survive and prosper.
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